Forecasts

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240559
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Dry weather persists into next week, with clear skies, mild
  days, and chilly nights expected.

- Light, patchy frost may develop late tonight and again on 
  Saturday and Sunday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes,
  rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies
  of water.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026

With afternoon dew points dipping lower than was expected over the
southwest portion of the forecast area, and models supporting 
continued somewhat drier low levels there overnight, have lowered
tonight's forecast min temps there slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026

This afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the 
Southern Plains/western Gulf area and extended into the mid MS 
Valley to western Great Lakes, with ridging also extending into 
the OH Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough extended from east of
the eastern seaboard to eastern sections of the Gulf. At the sfc,
an area of high pressure centered in Quebec extended south and 
into the eastern Conus. Clear skies were occurring across the OH
Valley region and eastern KY as of mid afternoon, with dewpoints 
in the mid 30s across the south to 40s in the north. 

Tonight and Saturday, a gradual trend of 500 mb height rises is
expected across eastern KY, with the upper level ridge axis
remaining from sections of TX/western Gulf into the mid MS Valley
to Great Lakes. At the same time, the sfc high will become 
centered over the Northeast to mid Atlantic states and extend 
across much of the eastern Conus to the Gulf. The upper ridge axis
per the consensus of guidance will remain west of eastern KY from
the western Gulf to the mid MS Valley to southern Great Lakes for
Saturday night, while the associated sfc ridge of high pressure 
extends from the mid Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and 
Southeast Conus.

The pattern will favor ridge/valley temperature splits/nocturnal 
valley inversions the next two nights. Valley locations should 
continue to reach mainly the upper 30s, while ridgetop locations 
settle into the mid 40s. Valley fog should develop each night as 
well, mainly along the larger bodies of such as rivers, larger 
creeks, and area lakes. Colder sheltered valleys/hollows away from
the larger bodies of water could experience patchy frost tonight 
and/or Saturday night. Daytime highs for Saturday will be similar 
to today, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026

Amplified upper ridging over the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys Sunday and Monday will gradually weaken and get shunted 
south and east of the area, opening eastern Kentucky to more 
westerly and/or west- southwesterly flow aloft mid to late next 
week. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control through
much if not all of the period. A cold front may move into the 
Midwest and Great Lakes region by Wednesday and Thursday of next 
week, allowing for surface winds to increase out of the south to 
southwesterly, though wind speeds would remain light. 

Sunny/clear skies and dry weather is expected through the period 
with mild days and cool, if not chilly, nights, with valley fog
through the river valleys and patchy frost (at least for Sunday
night and perhaps Monday night) in some sheltered valley 
locations removed from larger bodies of water. The one potential 
exception is around the middle of next week (i.e., Tuesday night 
through Wednesday) when most models depict a weakening shortwave 
crossing the area, bringing an increase in clouds. Such a scenario
would likely bring warmer overnight lows and reduce ridge/valley 
splits in temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites, but 
recent satellite imagery reveals radiation fog developing in the
valleys of Eastern Kentucky. This fog should deepen in the coming
hours, especially in places closer to the area's lakes, rivers, 
and streams. KSYM and KSME are the TAF sites most likely to see 
vsby reductions from this fog. The former has experienced fog-
driven MVFR reductions around dawn for the past few days, and the
same weather pattern remains in place across the area. Persistence
forecasting suggests that a TEMPO group around dawn will 
sufficiently capture these potential vsby reductions. KSME's 
proximity to Lake Cumberland could bolster the fog potential 
there, so a TEMPO group has also been introduced there with the
06z TAF package. Once the fog mixes out by mid-morning, all 
terminals are forecast to return to and/or remain in VFR 
conditions through the end of the forecast period. A passing 
disturbance aloft could introduce a few high clouds in the latter 
half of the period, but these will not be enough to produce  
meaningful ceilings. Expect light and variable surface winds to 
persist through the end of the period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...MARCUS